Easy Loans

Existing-home sales slowed 5.4% in June, declining to an annualized pace of 4.37 million units. This is the slowest pace since last October. Compared with the first quarter of this year, sales are down by an annualized 2.6%. Nonetheless, the second quarter pace of sales is the second fastest in the last two years.


The decline in June sales was broad-based across regions, with the Northeast faring the worst and the Midwest faring the best.

Inventory of existing homes rose slightly in June, reaching 6.6 months, up from 6.4 the previous month. The increase was driven by a drop in demand. Listings of homes for sale fell as well, by 3.2%, likely a result of fewer distressed listings.

The average median home price continued to appreciate in June as a result of a declining share of distressed sales. The median home price increased 0.9% over the previous month in June to $189,400. This level is 7.9% above year-ago levels. The share of distressed sales dropped to 25% in June from 30% the previous year.

Read the NAR release.

Small business sentiment declined in June according to the NFIB Optimism Index. The index fell by 3.0 points to 91.4, the lowest level since October 2011.

Nearly one-quarter of owners cite weak sales as their most important business problem (23%), followed by taxes (21%) and unreasonable regulations and red tape (19%). Only 3% reported that financing was their top business problem.



Ninety-three percent of all owners reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing. Twenty-nine percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points from May, and a net 7% reported loans “harder to get” compared to their last attempt, down 2 points.

After reaching a five year high of a net 4% in April, the net percent of all owners reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months fell to -5%. Expectations for future sales do not look much better, declining 5 points to -3% of all owners, producing a 4 month decline of 15 percentage points.

Capital expenditures are consistent with the slow performance of the economy. The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months dropped 3 points to 52%. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in 6 months was a negative 10%, an 8 point decline from May.

Read the report.

The ISM’s manufacturing index plunged in June, entering contractionary territory for the first time since the recovery began. June’s reading fell 3.8 points to 49.7, below the expansionary threshold of 50. This month’s report is the first contraction reported since July 2009.



Many of the details in June’s report were weak as well. The new orders index plunged 12.3 points, to 47.8, its biggest drop since 1980. The production index dropped 4.6 points, however, remained in expansionary territory at 51.0.

Employment was the one bright spot in June, falling a modest 0.3 points and remaining at a relatively high 56.6. Employment, however, is a lagging indicator, and may catch up with the other indicators in the next report.

Read the ISM release.

Retail sales declined 0.5% in June, the third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.4% as declines were broad-based in June. Revisions to growth in May were minor, but April sales were revised lower to -0.5% from the previously revised -0.2% reported last month.

Falling gasoline prices played a part in June’s decline as gasoline stations sales led the fall. Building supply stores and sporting goods and hobby stores also experienced larger declines.

The only bright spot to the report was nonstore retailers, but their sales were small and also lagged recent trends.

While retail sales remain above year-ago levels, the growth slowed to 3.8%, the first time growth has been below 4% since August 2010.

Read the report.